Macroeconomic Impacts

Macroeconomic Impacts

Data Dashboard

Date As of June 18, 2020

 

employment-impact

 

 
   
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 12.8 percent for the week ending June 6, which was unchanged from the prior week.   The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 18,654,001, an increase of 25,986 (or 0.1 percent) from the preceding week.

 

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR


 

consumer-confidence-impact

 

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Consumer sentiment improved for the second straight month rising by 9.1% in early June up from May’s assessment.   Confidence remains subdued by the pandemic impact and is 19.7% below the sentiment level reported in the prior year period.   The index reflects the effect of the ongoing economic recession; and the Expected Index, which measures future expectations remains well below the current sentiment, indicating that few consumers anticipate the reestablishment of favorable economic conditions anytime soon.

 

SOURCE: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, CREDITNTELL


 

retail-sales-impact

 

 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2020 decreased by 7.9% from February 2020.

 
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Some of the most striking declines by sector included clothing, food service, gasoline stations, and electronics and appliances.

  Retail_Sales_Impact

 

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


 

housing-market-impact

 

 
 
         

The residential building permit rate improved in May 2020 by 14.4% from April 2020 but was still 15.2% below the February 2020 (pre-pandemic) rate, and 8.8% below the prior year May 2019 rate.

 

Privately owned housing starts increased 4.3% for May 2020 following a 26.4% decline in April 2020 and remained 37.8% below the February 2020 rate.

 

On April 23, 2020 JP Morgan Chase predicted a 51.3% drop in housing starts by the summer (from pre-pandemic levels), with a quick recovery to follow.

 

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, BLOOMBERG


 

industrial-impact

 

Total industrial production increased by 1.4% in May 2020 compared to April but remained 15.4% below February 2020.

 

Overall capacity utilization increased to 64.8% in May 2020 versus 64.0% in April 2020, but still down from 76.8% in February 2020.

 
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The biggest month over month increase occurred in automotive, which was essentially shut down the entire month of April.

 

Monthly Change in Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted - April Versus February

Industrial_Impact

 

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


 

immediate-economic-impact

 

 

The increase for the week of June 13, 2020 was driven by increases in electricity output, fuel sales, railroad traffic, and tax withholdings, as well as a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims. The prior week of June 6 was revised upward due to the release of unemployment data, which was revised upward.

  Immediate_Economic_Impact

 

SOURCE: THE WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDEX: DANIEL LEWIS, NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE; KAREL MERTENS, DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE; AND JAMES STOCK, HARVARD UNIVERSITY


 

long-term-economic-outlook

 

 

The first quarter GDP dropped by 4.8% from the prior quarter due to the impacts of COVID-19, which began materially impacting the US economy in March 2020.

 
  

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “GDPNow” estimate for Q2 2020 growth was at negative 45.5% as of June 17, 2020, which is lower than The Conference Board’s overall estimate for Q2.

 

The Conference Board Economic Outlook
2019 - 2020

Long_Term_Economic_Outlook

 

SOURCE: THE CONFERENCE BOARD, ATLANTA FEDERAL RESERVE, BLOOMBERG