Macroeconomic Impacts

Macroeconomic Impacts

Data Dashboard

Date As of August 20, 2020

 

employment-impact

 

 
   
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 10.2 percent for the week ending  August 8, which was a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the prior week.   The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 15,849,488, a decrease of 1,031,975 (or 6.1 percent) from the preceding week.

 

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR


 

consumer-confidence-impact

 

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Consumer sentiment decreased by 6.3% at the beginning of July over June’s assessment.   Confidence remains subdued by the pandemic impact and was 18.9% below the sentiment level reported in the prior year period.   Respondents to the survey reported a decline in confidence in  government policies and a more pessimistic view of the five- year economic outlook, tempered by a positive “buying outlook”  due to low interest rates.

 

SOURCE: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN


 

retail-sales-impact

 

 

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and  food services sales for July  2020 increased by 1.2% from June.

 
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Compared to pre-pandemic conditions, retail sales for July exceeded where they were in February by  1.7% and were up by 2.9% over July 2019. Certain segments including foodservice, apparel and  gasoline sales remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

  Advance Retail Sales Report

 

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


 

housing-market-impact

 

 
     
The residential building permit rate for July jumped by 20.5% from  June and was 4.0% above the February 2020 (prepandemic) rate, and 9.4% above the prior year rate.   Privately-owned housing starts for July increased  26.1% on a  month-over-month basis but still had not reached pre-pandemic levels, remaining 4.5% below the February 2020 rate.

 

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, Marketwatch


 

industrial-impact

 

Total industrial production rose 3.0% in July compared to June but remained 8.4% below February.

 

Overall capacity utilization increased to 70.6% in July 2020 versus 68.5% in June but remained down  from 76.9% in February.

 
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The largest month-over-month increase occurred in electrical power consumption which is seasonally normal and was in line with the comparable period in 2019.

  Monthly Change in Industrial Production

 

SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


 

immediate-economic-impact

 

 
The slight increase for the week of August 15 was due to an increase in electricity output, which offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and declines in fuel sales, tax withholding, and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year).
  Immediate Economic Impact

 

SOURCE: THE WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDEX: DANIEL LEWIS, NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE; KAREL MERTENS, DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE; AND JAMES STOCK, HARVARD UNIVERSITY


 

long-term-economic-outlook

 

 
The first quarter GDP dropped by 5.0% a revision downwards from the 4.8% decline originally estimated from the prior quarter due to  the impacts of COVID-19.
 
  
The Conference Board outlook as of August 13, 2020 projected a full-year decline in U.S. GDP of 4.9% based on a “U” shaped recovery. This was a 0.8 point improvement from the prior July forecast, despite recent increases in COVID-19 cases, driven in part by stronger consumer spending and a strong housing market.
 

The Conference Board Economic Outlook

 

SOURCE: THE CONFERENCE BOARD, ATLANTA FEDERAL RESERVE